irredenta

If Obama were running against Gingrich this fall, he’d win—barring outright economic or military catastrophe—because the former speaker will never be able to persuade a majority of the people that he has the right temperament and character to occupy the Oval Office. Pitted against Obama in January 2011, Gingrich was supported by 37 percent of the people, versus 55 percent for Obama. A year later, after introducing himself to a new generation of adults and refreshing the memories of their parents, he enjoys the support of … 37 percent of the people, versus 55 percent for Obama. Gingrich is a walking illustration of the maxim that you never get a second chance to make a first impression. (He has managed, however, to refute what I had previously regarded as a law of physics—namely, that a soufflé can’t rise twice.)

Against Romney, however, the race becomes much tougher. For example, while 47 percent of the people think that Obama is more competent than Romney, 47 percent think that Romney is more competent than Obama. And Obama’s job approval has not yet reached the level consistent with a general election victory.

Most important, the economic horizon for 2012 has darkened. The Federal Reserve Board, OECD, and the World Bank all predict slowing global growth, which is bound to dampen an export-led recovery in the United States. And the fourth quarter report issued on January 27 wasn’t exactly a blockbuster. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8 percent (a bit below expectations), but final demand rose by only 0.9 percent while inventories swelled. Consumer spending outpaced growth in disposable income, meaning that households spent more only by saving less. This can’t continue indefinitely: Over the past year, real actual tax incomes actually fell by 0.1 percent. Meanwhile, business investment grew at the slowest pace in two years. And as the Fed recently noted, the modest growth predicted for 2012 would not be enough to reduce unemployment significantly from current levels.